Matteo Berrettini vs Hugo Gaston Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

When analyzing the upcoming tennis match between Gaston and Berrettini, second serve performance provides significant insight. Over the past six months, Gaston has achieved a 41.84% win rate on second serve points, whereas Berrettini has managed a higher percentage at 51.72%. Historically, this metric aligns closely with match prediction accuracy.

Their ability to return serves further highlights the competitive edge. Gaston has won 44.67% of second serve return points, slightly outperforming Berrettini at 43.7%. On first serve return points, however, Gaston leads with 25.2% compared to Berrettini's 19.89%. These statistics play a critical role in identifying the favored player in head-to-head matchups.

Looking at the performance under pressure, Gaston has saved 50.68% of breakpoints faced recently. Berrettini has shown more resilience in this area, with a 62.66% save rate, offering valuable information for in-game betting predictions. Moreover, Gaston has converted 34.45% of breakpoint opportunities, surpassing Berrettini's 25.58% conversion rate.

Regarding match outcomes over the past year, Gaston has a win percentage of 49.18% (30 wins and 31 losses), while Berrettini boasts a 69.09% win rate (38 wins and 17 losses). This clearly favors Berrettini when predicting the overall outcome. Their best surface performances provide further clarity, with Gaston excelling on clay (62% win rate) and Berrettini dominating on grass (79% win rate). In contrast, Gaston struggles on grass and Berrettini finds indoor hard courts less favorable.

The player level also gives insight into their recent forms. Gaston has won 48.15% of his matches on the main tour in the last year, while Berrettini has excelled, winning 75.68%. This reflects Berrettini’s strong performance at higher-level events, compared to Gaston.

Head-to-head history gives Berrettini a clear advantage, having won both previous encounters against Gaston. Out of five sets played in total, Berrettini has claimed victory in four. Their most recent match was a straight-sets win for Berrettini at the Generali Open - Kitzbuhel. Moreover, Berrettini also has the upper hand when it comes to deciding sets between these players.

When considering opponent quality, Gaston has faced players with an average rank of 119.87 over the last 12 months, whereas Berrettini's opponents had an average rank of 64.02, suggesting that Berrettini has competed against stronger opponents overall. Both players perform almost equally in deciding set scenarios against all opponents, with Gaston having a slight edge at 52% compared to Berrettini's 50%.

The data points strongly to Matteo Berrettini as the likely victor in this upcoming matchup. His superior second serve percentage, strong recent performances, head-to-head success, and ability to perform under pressure give him the edge over Gaston in this contest.